INTL consultant Kory Melby reports Brazil's soybean fields look strong despite planting running two to three weeks late. Replanted fields ran short of time for second-crop corn, and spot old-crop corn prices in Brazil are very high.
High Brazilian spot corn prices and the late-planting squeeze on safrinha acreage point to tighter corn supply and firmer feed prices into 2020, while the good soybean crop limits upside for soy.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.