Cornbelt Marketing analyst Sam Hudson said grain traders are watching weekend rain forecasts closely. He said the western Corn Belt needs more than a quarter inch of rain after hot, windy weather, and central Illinois may be the area to watch for crop stress heading into July.
Uncertain rainfall in key corn areas keeps a weather premium in feed grain prices until the rain verifies.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.