Analyst Frayne Olson said southern Brazilian crop areas are dry and yield potential is being cut, while Argentina has more problems than Brazil but forecast rains could stabilize yields. Old-crop soybean prices rallied on South American concerns.
Yield cuts in southern Brazil and Argentina tighten soybean supply and support prices for meal used in feed. Rain forecasts could limit further gains.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.