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NDSU crops marketing economist Frayne Olson says Argentina's soybean crop draws attention, but the meal market matters more because Argentina is mainly a processor that exports little whole soybean. He expects drought-related price effects to be larger on soymeal and soyoil.
Argentine drought losses hit crush capacity and meal export availability more than bean exports, so the price impact falls mainly on soymeal and soyoil.
rrfn.comDon WickJan 21, 2023After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
