South American planting is off to a slow start, with Brazilian soybeans about 2% planted. Argentina's planting is near average pace, but corn is about 20% planted and conditions are dry in western areas.
Slow, uneven Brazilian planting and dry Argentine conditions raise weather risk to South American supply, which is supportive for soybean and corn prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.