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Planting is underway in South America, with heavy rain forecast for central Brazil and moderate rain for Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul. Models show a 82% chance of La Niña in late 2022 falling to 60% by February 2023, and early Brazilian first-crop corn has been hit by cold and frost in Parana.
La Niña raises the risk of drought in southern Brazil and Argentina, which could cut soybean and corn supply and lift meal prices. Frost damage to early corn adds modest upward pressure on corn.
farmprogress.comMatthew KruseSep 30, 2022After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
