
Strong La Niña conditions are expected to keep the US and South America warm and dry through the 2021 growing season. Brazil and Argentina already had very dry spring planting conditions, with Paraná experiencing its driest season in 17 years.
A persistent dry pattern over the main South American and US growing regions raises the risk of yield losses in corn and soybeans, which would support prices and tighten feed supplies.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.