
A moderate La Nina, peaking at minus 1.1 C in December, has continued to shape South American weather. It favors increased rain in northern Brazil and drought risk in the south.
The pattern is expected to persist into March.
La Nina-driven dryness in southern Brazil and Argentina cuts corn and soybean output in key exporting regions. Tighter South American supply supports global corn and soybean prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.