
The Southern Oscillation Index 30-day and 90-day running averages both sit above the La Nina threshold of +7.00 as of Sept. 8.
This signals La Nina development in the Pacific, with the pattern expected to affect weather from September through December.
La Nina typically brings drier conditions to Argentina and southern Brazil and can affect US crops, tightening South American soybean and corn supply and supporting prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.