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Brazil's second-crop soybean planting is trailing last year by about 10% but remains on pace with the five-year average. A grain marketer says a 55-65% chance of La Niña could bring South American production losses.
Any price rally tied to adverse weather would most likely come in January or February.
Possible La Niña losses in South America would support soybean, soybean meal and corn prices, though the market is expected to stay range-bound until production risks are clearer.
brownfieldagnews.comNicole HeslipNov 1, 2017After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
