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Consultant Michael Cordonnier says hot, dry conditions in central Brazil could delay soybean planting, which typically starts in mid-September. He notes that Mato Grosso is very dry while Paraná has better moisture.
He also warns that a developing La Niña could bring drier conditions to southern Brazil and Argentina.
Planting delays in Mato Grosso and a possible La Niña dryness threat to Argentina and southern Brazil raise the risk to South American soybean and corn supply. High local prices, driven by currency devaluation, are encouraging farmers to plant anyway.
brownfieldagnews.comAug 26, 2020After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 338 past bullish events of any kind, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
