
A front in southern Brazil is expected to reach central Brazil by late next week, bringing moderate to heavy rain that could mark the start of the wet season. The typical onset date is around September 26, and the dry season has been in place since May.
Late or erratic onset of the rains delays planting of double-crop soybeans and safrinha corn, raising the risk of reduced second-crop corn output and supporting corn and soybean prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.