
Rio Grande do Sul has recorded only 20 to 40% of normal precipitation this year, cutting its corn crop below 5 million tonnes and its soybean crop by 16% to under 17 million tonnes. Brazil's national totals remain large, with corn above 100 million tonnes and soybeans near a record 124 million tonnes.
Losses in the south reduce Brazil's export availability for corn and soy, which tightens the balance sheet and supports prices even though national output stays large.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.