Timely rains have helped Brazil's soybean crop recover ahead of its peak harvest, and the safrinha corn crop could be affected if planting is delayed. Dry conditions persist in Argentina, but the crop is holding up better than expected.
Improved Brazilian soybean yields add to export supply and weigh on soybean prices, while the risk of a short safrinha corn crop keeps some support under corn.
After 363 past bearish weather events, SOY moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.