
Heavy rain fell across most of Brazil, including the drier south, improving soybean and corn crops, with more rain forecast for the soybean belt. Central and southern Argentina remain drier and hotter, which increases crop stress as Midwest U.S. winter wheat faces colder weather.
Good Brazilian rainfall supports larger supply expectations and weighs on soybean and corn prices, while Argentine dryness adds yield risk that could limit the decline.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.