
Soybean prices fell early in January on forecasts of heavy rain returning to drought-hit Brazil. Meteorologist Eric Snodgrass says 8 to 10 inches of rain over two weeks could delay harvest and complicate safrinha corn planting.
He calls it a worst-case scenario compared with staying dry.
Rain relieves drought stress but threatens harvest and second-crop corn timing, so the net price effect is mixed.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.