
Rio Grande do Sul's soybean area is 6.5 million hectares, with productivity estimated at 2,175 kg/ha, a 30% cut from potential due to drought. Rains between March 29 and 31 aided moisture recovery, mainly for later-sown crops.
Corn productivity is down 39.49% and corn silage down 39.18%.
Sharp yield losses in Rio Grande do Sul reduce regional corn and soybean supply, supporting feed corn prices. Recent rains limit further losses but do not restore the lost potential.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.