
Heavy rains of 25 to 50 millimeters fell across Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais from December 1 to 4, improving soil moisture after a delayed wet season under La Niña. Dry forecasts persist for southern Brazil and Argentina, where planting and yield expectations remain under pressure.
Relief rains in central Brazil reduce immediate yield fears, but drought risk in southern Brazil and Argentina keeps a supply premium in soybeans and corn.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.