Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly complete, with CONAB estimating a record 154.8 million tonnes after favorable growing conditions. Safras & Mercado put output slightly higher at 155.66 million tonnes.
In Argentina, drought is expected to cut the soybean harvest to its smallest in about 20 years.
Argentina is a leading exporter of soybean meal and oil, so a sharp drop in its crop tightens meal and oil supplies and supports prices. Brazil's record crop offsets part of the shortfall in global soybean trade.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.