Brazil's soybean planting was about 96% complete and first-crop corn about 95% planted, ahead of the five-year average. Dry conditions in southern Brazil, including Rio Grande do Sul, are raising concern, and a weak La Nina is expected to persist through the southern summer.
Central Brazil and Mato Grosso are still forecast to have mostly favorable conditions.
Risk of yield losses in southern Brazil supports soybean and corn prices, but favorable central Brazil conditions limit the threat to overall exports.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.