Purdue experts say prediction models disagree on Indiana's spring climate. A weak El Niño is expected to persist through spring, with a mild drying signal for central Indiana in May and a three-month CPC outlook showing above-average precipitation.
Mixed spring precipitation forecasts for Indiana add some uncertainty to planting in the Corn Belt. Without a clear signal, the price effect on corn and soybeans is minimal.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.