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Kpler expects Brazil's 2025-26 soybean crop to reach about 180 million tonnes, a record, with harvest about 25% complete. Below-average rain in Rio Grande do Sul raises yield concerns for crops in pod-fill, and Brazilian export offers are priced well below US Gulf values.
Brazil's record crop and competitive export pricing add supply pressure on world soybean markets. Dryness in southern Brazil is a risk that could tighten supply and support prices if it worsens.
kpler.comMatt DarraghFeb 24, 2026After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
