
An early look at Brazil's 2021/22 crops projects corn output of 116 to 118 million tonnes, up sharply from an estimated 84 million in 2020/21. Central Brazil is hot and dry, with below-normal rain forecast for August to October.
A large recovery in corn output would ease tight export supplies, but the dry start to the season leaves the crop exposed, so the price effect is mixed.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.