
Brazil's 2022/23 soybean planting reached 95% of estimated area, slightly below last year, according to AgRural. Dry, hot weather in Rio Grande do Sul is affecting the state's first corn crop, though no severe losses have been recorded yet.
Conab expects soybean output of 153.48 million tonnes and corn output of 125.83 million tonnes.
Rio Grande do Sul dryness threatens local corn yields, which could tighten feed corn supplies from Brazil. Rain forecasts for the wider centre-south limit the upside risk to prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.