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Reuters reports that El Nino has brought unusual heat and dryness to Brazil, causing drought that is draining Amazonian rivers and disrupting northern grain shipments. In Rio Grande do Sul, excess rain has slowed soy planting, and Aprosoja-MT warned that extreme weather could force replanting and push corn and cotton sowing outside the ideal window.
Planting delays and possible replanting in Brazil's main soy and corn regions tighten near-term export supply expectations and support soybean and corn prices. Buyers should expect firmer South American basis and forward prices while the weather risk persists.
reuters.comRoberto SamoraOct 19, 2023After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
