
SAFRAS & Mercado says Brazil's soybean problems and replanting could reduce the planned area for the 2024 second corn crop. It also notes that El Niño is confirmed, with moderate intensity expected to end by mid-2024, and that a smaller corn area would mean more competition with exports.
A cut in second-crop corn area lowers expected Brazilian exports and could lift corn prices if soybean replanting continues to slip.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.