La Niña slows soybean planting and narrows Brazil’s 2025/26 production outlook

After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jul 25, 2022Heat takes bite out of corn, soybean and spring wheat crop condition ratings - Pro Farmer-9.5%
• Jan 24, 2025La Niña: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, January 2025 - Mitigating the expected impacts of La Niña‑induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security - World | ReliefWeb+3.9%
• Apr 30, 2018IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | April Climate Briefing: La Niña Transitions Out, Neutral Next+2.6%
• May 29, 2019Weather contributes to record-slow corn planting - Brownfield Ag News+9.6%
• Feb 10, 2026Wheat production: anticipating climate risks in France up to 2100 | INRAE+1.9%

After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Aug 27, 2021Potential Brazil corn and soybean production in 2021/22-4.6%
• Aug 7, 20252025/26 Corn Planting in Brazil to Start Within Weeks-1.1%
• Oct 9, 2018Soybean planting progresses at a slow pace - Revista Cultivar+4.1%
• Aug 14, 2025Indiana Corn, Soybean Crops Feel the Heat and Variability of Late Planting+1.1%
• Sep 24, 2020La Niña: Outlook 2020-21 (September 2020) - World | ReliefWeb+2.4%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Sep 26, 20242024/25 Brazil Soybean Planting Off to a Slow Start+0.3%
• Sep 22, 20262026/27 Brazil Soybeans 1.2% Planted, Production of 180.0 mt-3.0%
• Oct 23, 2023Brazil Soybean Planting Slows as Dry Conditions Spread-0.4%
• Sep 25, 2017Extreme dryness slows soybean planting in Brazil-1.6%
• Dec 12, 2023Brazil Cuts Its Soybean and Corn Production Projections for 2024 - farmdoc daily-0.7%