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INRAE published research projecting that under high emissions, droughts and heatwaves could become 3 to 6 times more frequent in French wheat regions by 2100. Mild winters followed by wet springs could become up to 12 times more frequent in northern France.
The findings concern long-term yield risk rather than the current crop, so they have little direct effect on near-term prices.
inrae.frFeb 10, 2026After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
