Brazil soybean planting reached 1.2% as of late last week, ahead of 0.9% a year earlier, according to AgRural. Heavy rain is forecast for southern Brazil while central Brazil faces dry, hot conditions that could force replanting of early-sown fields.
Irregular weather in central Brazil raises the risk of replanting and lower early yields, a potential supply concern that could firm soybean and soybean meal prices ahead of the 2026/27 crop.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.