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Conab reduced its 2023/24 Brazilian soybean forecast by 1.4% to 5,886 million metric tons, though it still expects a record crop. Dry weather and low prices are expected to reduce the safrinha corn area.
Soybean planting is behind schedule because of El Niño.
Even with a record projected crop, the downward revision and the late planting raise risk to global soybean and corn supplies. This supports prices for both crops.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduLee BynumDec 12, 2023After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
