Aprosoja/MS cut its 2023/24 soybean yield estimate to 50.5 sacks per hectare, down 19% from 2022/23, and total production to 12.92 million tons, down 13.8% from initial expectations. Hot, dry weather also hit safrinha corn in Parana.
A sharp cut to Mato Grosso do Sul production tightens Brazilian soybean supply, supporting soybean and meal prices, though farmer selling is slow and limits near-term pressure.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.