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Conab data shows Brazil had sown only 28.4% of its planned 45.1 million hectares of soybeans by October 21, behind the 34.1% pace of a year earlier. Excess rain in Rio Grande do Sul and uneven rainfall elsewhere have delayed planting and raised the risk of losing the ideal sowing window.
A slow planting pace raises the risk of yield loss and reduced Brazilian soy supply later in the season, which supports soybean and soymeal prices. The effect depends on whether rains normalize in the coming weeks.
valorinternational.globo.comPaulo SantosOct 25, 2023After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
