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Heavy Midwest rainfall and flooding over the weekend pushed soybeans, corn and wheat higher on commercial and speculative buying. USDA showed 10% of US soybeans and 34% of corn planted as of late April, with winter wheat rated 54% good to excellent.
Weekly export inspections for soybeans were also bullish.
Flooding raises the risk of replanting and lost acres for corn and soybeans, and winter wheat damage could tighten supplies. Traders are bidding up futures on the weather premium, which supports feed grain and meal prices.
brownfieldagnews.comJohn PerkinsMay 1, 2017After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
May 1 report that heavy Midwest rain and flooding drove commercial and speculative buying in corn, soybeans and wheat, directly explaining the one-day gain via planting delay/supply risk.
