Climatempo says El Niño will be fully developed by year-end and will affect the 2018/2019 summer harvest in Brazil. Brazilian agronomists warn that hotter, drier conditions favor higher pest and disease incidence, with whiteflies and bedbugs expected to rise in soybean, corn and cotton.
El Niño-driven rainfall shifts and rising pest pressure could cut yields in key Brazilian crops, tightening soybean and corn supplies and supporting prices for feed ingredients.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.