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An interview with Esteban Copati of the Bolsa de Cereales of Argentina discusses the 2017/18 season, which saw early-season floods during planting, a severe drought from January to March 2018, and heavy April rains that damaged soybean quality. He notes that infrastructure problems and wet conditions have repeatedly hurt planted area, harvest and grain transport.
The Bolsa projects a 2017/18 production figure of 36 million tonnes.
Weather-driven losses in Argentina's soybean and corn crops reduce export supplies of meal, oil and grain, supporting prices for those products. Quality damage from wet harvest conditions can also reduce usable crush output.
wilsoncenter.orgChristopher PhalenJul 20, 2018After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
