
DTN reported that as of September 20, 2022, 34% of the US corn area and 29% of the soybean area were in drought (D1-D4), the highest share of the season for corn. Below-trend yields are expected for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton and sorghum, and prices remain near historic highs.
Expanding drought and below-trend yields across several crops tighten US supplies and keep prices elevated, supporting feed grain and oilseed prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.