Wheat spread hits one-year high as drought fears grow in US plains

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Apr 5, 2023USA: Wheat Spread Hits Record As Drought Plagues Midwest-1.0%
• Jun 22, 2026After drought and wildfires, wheat farmers in the Great Plains are in for a rough year | HPPR-5.1%
• Jun 19, 2018Wheat feels the heat of record low US acres and drought reduced yields - High Plains Journal-6.0%
• Mar 13, 2018Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop-7.6%
• May 7, 2026$7 wheat is back as Plains drought slashes crop prospects+5.7%

After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Mar 26, 2026Wheat spread reaches seven-month high amid rising US crop concerns+0.1%
• Feb 2, 2023Drought threatens U.S. wheat production despite acreage bump+2.4%
• Oct 15, 2026English barley harvest falls to 14-year low as wheat edges higher - Farmers Weekly+0.8%
• Jun 3, 2026Drought and frosts put pressure on second-crop corn in the country - Cultivar Magazine-1.1%
• Nov 8, 2022Drought drops France’s maize output | World Grain+0.5%