Loading…
The spread between hard red winter and soft red winter wheat in Chicago hit a record $1.72/bu, surpassing the 2011 record. Drought in the US Plains has cut Kansas good-excellent ratings to 19%, and Canadian Prairies are also in severe dryness.
A record HRW premium reflects real US drought losses that tighten HRW supply and support import demand. Dry Canadian Prairies add risk to global wheat and canola supply.
ukragroconsult.comApr 5, 2023After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
