◂ Event Timeline

Mar 12, 2021WEATHERUS

Wheat flat; set for second weekly drop as US weather improves - Markets

Chicago wheat was flat and set for a second weekly decline as forecast rain for the U.S. Plains winter wheat belt was expected to ease dryness. Soybeans and corn were also on track for weekly losses.

Argentina's exchange cut its soybean estimate to 44 million tonnes and its corn estimate to 45 million tonnes because of dry conditions.

WHY IT MATTERS

Better U.S. Plains moisture reduces the drought risk premium on HRW wheat, while Argentine crop cuts limit the downside in soybeans and corn.

AFFECTSKWHEAT▼WHEAT▼SOY◆CORN◆

SOURCE
brecorder.comReutersMar 12, 2021

Price reaction & history

KWHEAT▼bearishSO FAR1d -0.1%5d -1.5%20d -1.6%

After 70 past bearish weather events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.

May 18, 2025Chicago wheat stumbles on improved harvest prospects - Markets - Business Recorder+4.3%
Apr 25, 2023Wheat hovers near 21-month low as weather, exports weigh - Markets - Business Recorder-5.4%
Mar 25, 2021Wheat nears 3-month low on supply prospects; soy, corn also decline - Markets - Business Recorder-0.1%
Apr 28, 2025Global wheat market: Wheat prices fall as weather improves in the northern hemisphere-1.8%
Apr 29, 2025Wheat prices are under pressure from improved weather conditions for the new crop-0.9%

WHEAT▼bearishSO FAR1d -0.1%5d -0.3%20d +0.5%

After 334 past bearish weather events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.

May 10, 2021Paris wheat drops - Markets - Business Recorder+3.5%
Sep 28, 2024Soy futures soar on US weather woes - Markets - Business Recorder+0.6%
Jun 2, 2026Chicago grain falls as US weather lifts crop outlook - Markets - Business Recorder-1.3%
May 18, 2025Chicago wheat stumbles on improved harvest prospects - Markets - Business Recorder-4.6%
Apr 25, 2023Wheat hovers near 21-month low as weather, exports weigh - Markets - Business Recorder+0.0%

SOY◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.0%5d -1.6%20d -0.9%

After 324 past neutral weather events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.

Jun 25, 2021Corn, wheat, soy steady as US crop prospects assessed - Markets - Business Recorder+5.5%
Apr 26, 2024Wheat poised for biggest weekly rise in 2 years on supply fears - Markets - Business Recorder+2.3%
Mar 25, 2024Wheat hits 3-week high on French crop worries - Markets - Business Recorder-0.6%
Apr 25, 2023Wheat hovers near 21-month low as weather, exports weigh - Markets - Business Recorder-0.7%
Feb 18, 2025Wheat eases from 4-month highs, soybean flat - Markets - Business Recorder-0.7%

CORN◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.6%5d -9.6%20d +2.3%

After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

Jun 25, 2021Corn, wheat, soy steady as US crop prospects assessed - Markets - Business Recorder+5.6%
Mar 25, 2024Wheat hits 3-week high on French crop worries - Markets - Business Recorder-4.9%
Apr 25, 2023Wheat hovers near 21-month low as weather, exports weigh - Markets - Business Recorder-2.4%
Feb 18, 2025Wheat eases from 4-month highs, soybean flat - Markets - Business Recorder-4.4%
Sep 4, 2021Late-running French soft wheat harvest almost complete - Markets - Business Recorder-1.6%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

KWHEAT · GP ▸

——— · ·

WHEAT · GP ▸

——— · ·

Loading…