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Chicago wheat futures rose to a three-week high on March 25 on concerns over the French crop and Black Sea tensions, with the most-active CBOT contract up 0.4% at $5.56-3/4 a bushel. FranceAgriMer reported 66% of French soft wheat in good or excellent condition as of March 18, versus 94% a year earlier.
Russia also attacked energy infrastructure in Ukraine, while ample supply kept prices near multi-year lows.
Lower French crop ratings and Black Sea risk support wheat prices from a low base, and short-covering by speculators adds to the near-term rally. Feed buyers may see wheat's modest gains help narrow the discount to corn, though ample global supply limits upside.
brecorder.comReutersMar 25, 2024After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
