
Euronext September milling wheat rose 1.5% to 187.50 euros a tonne on June 5, following a short-covering rally in Chicago. Hot weather forecasts for US Plains and southern Russia, plus rising Russian export prices, drove the gains.
Weather risk in the US and Russia and firmer Russian export prices support wheat values in the near term.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.