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US wheat futures touched a one-week high on February 16, 2021, rising nearly 3% after frigid temperatures reached west-central Texas. Soybeans gained after NOPA reported January crush of 184.654 million bushels, the second-largest monthly total on record.
Freeze risk to hard red winter wheat supports wheat prices, and a strong crush signals firm soybean meal output and demand for soybeans.
brecorder.comReutersFeb 16, 2021After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Notes wheat up nearly 3% as frigid temperatures reached Texas, which fits the weather premium building, though the timing is slightly after the move.
