
Chicago wheat fell on Friday on weak demand for US cargoes but was set for a weekly gain as dry weather slowed Russian planting. Russia's IKAR trimmed its 2024 wheat crop forecast to 81.8 million tonnes, and Russian winter sowing rates fell to an 11-year low.
Lower Russian crop forecasts and weak planting support wheat prices, though poor US export demand caps gains.
After 29 past neutral weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.