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Large wheat crops in major exporting nations keep US hard red winter wheat cash prices in a narrow range. Drought affects more than 40% of winter wheat area and La Niña conditions are developing, which could hurt yields.
Heavy global supply caps wheat prices, but drought and La Niña risks could create a rally if winter wheat yields disappoint.
farmprogress.comTodd HubbsJan 23, 2026After 29 past neutral weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
