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Drought has developed in the southwestern US and across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, with drought monitor areas showing dryness since mid-May. The commentary says weather-driven price rallies often peak before the actual crop damage occurs.
Weather fears are lifting grain prices now, but the analysis suggests the rally may fade if rain arrives or the feared yield losses fail to materialize.
farmersforum.comJun 18, 2021After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
