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A University of Arkansas review of 2016 says weather extremes drove a volatile grain market, with Argentine rains and Brazilian drought lifting corn and soybean prices from April to mid-June. Prices had sunk to multi-year lows earlier in the year on expectations of record South American crops.
The retrospective shows how South American weather shifts export demand toward the US, a dynamic that remains relevant for pricing corn and soybeans into 2017.
uaex.uada.eduDec 16, 2016After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
