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Farm Futures reports that wheat rallies have struggled to hold, with US wheat acreage at a 56-year low and spring wheat futures down as much as 17% from a mid-May two-year high. Analysts cite a range of bearish factors, while El Niño and drought threaten global supply.
Tight US acreage and expected smallest winter harvest since the mid-1960s support prices, but weak sentiment and ample global stocks cap gains. El Niño adds upside risk for future supply.
farmprogress.comBruce BlytheJun 22, 2026After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 29 past neutral weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
