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Rain has improved hard red winter wheat crop conditions in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, but planted acreage is 12% lower than 2016. Analysts say Oklahoma and Texas harvest prices could land between $4.00 and $4.24, with $5.00 requiring about a 10% cut in foreign output.
Lower HRW acreage supports prices, but the improved crop ratings and weak foreign shortfall limit upside for wheat used in feed.
After 29 past neutral weather events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.