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SovEcon estimates Russia harvested 87.2 million tonnes of wheat in 2025, up from 82.6 million last year, with 2025-26 exports forecast at 43.4 million tonnes. Exports were slow in July–September at 11 million tonnes but are accelerating, with October estimated at 4.7–5.2 million tonnes.
Black Sea FOB values have been trending higher, and weather and river infrastructure bottlenecks are expected from late October.
A large Russian crop and expected export pickup add supply, but rising FOB values and winter logistics risks could firm wheat prices in the near term.
producer.comSean PrattOct 3, 2025After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 29 past neutral weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
