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Reuters reported that a record 82% of the U.S. faces abnormal dryness, above the 2012 high. Dry fall conditions threaten winter wheat establishment and the 2023 harvest, and low Mississippi River levels are disrupting grain movement.
Record dryness threatens winter wheat and future crop supplies, supporting wheat and feed grain prices. Barge disruption on the Mississippi adds freight costs and widens Gulf export basis.
reuters.comKaren BraunOct 21, 2022After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
